RHB | China | Weaker Imports Indicate Sluggish Recovery

Economic Research	08 September 2015
China
Economic Highlights
Weaker Imports Indicate Sluggish Recovery Though China’s export growth slightly rebounded in Aug 2015, the reading was still in negative zone for two straight months, reflecting weak global demand and also showing uncertainties in recoveries of China’s major trade partners. Import growth still stayed in low levels, mainly dragged down by declining commodity prices and weak economic conditions. Looking ahead, we remain cautious for the pace of recovery for China’s exports, as the leading indicators, new export orders and manufacturing PMI in Guangdong province, which is a major export base of the nation, were still heading south, indicating further pressure in the near term. We hold our view that China’s export growth will hit -0.9% YoY in 2015, from 6.1% YoY in 2014. In a longer term, the mild devaluation of CNY and ongoing monetary easing in the EU and Japan will help the exports to gain 5.0% YoY in 2016. Economist:  Zhang Fan| +8621 6288 9611 ext 105
To access our recent reports please click on the links below: 01 Sept: Weakening PMI suggests more supportive measures 18 Aug: Not Out Of The Woods Yet