Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2014-09-29)

Daily 29 September 2014 TOP VIEWS Malaysia Budget 2015 Preview MediaTek (2454 TT) | TP revision Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) | Rating changed Universal Robina Corp (URC PM) | TP revision Malaysia Budget 2015 Preview Sustaining progress on fiscal consolidation Economics Budget 2015 on 10 Oct 2014 to stay focused on fiscal consolidation, especially with the rollout of GST on 1 Apr 2015. Other possible key measures include announcements on the review of fuel subsidy mechanism; Government debt management measures; incentives for Islamic banking/capital market; higher development fund allocation for Sarawak and several railway infrastructure projects; people-oriented measures to deal with cost of living issues. The �usual suspects� like hikes in sin and gaming taxes as well as further property-cooling measures are unlikely. Click here for report » MediaTek (2454 TT) When the dust settles� Share Price: TWD455 | Target Price: TWD600 (+32%) | MCap (USD): 23.6 | ADTV (USD): 106M Reiterate BUY but lower TP to TWD600 (from TWD650) as we trim FY14/15 EPS forecasts by 5% each on softer profitability assumptions. Global smartphone market may peak in FY17F with size 33% bigger than feature phone market in FY10. Global EM ex China market will grow at 20%+ CAGR FY13-17F while 4G upgrade cycle in China presents another growth opportunity. MTK is strengthening its product portfolio, enlarging addressable market and optimizing cost structure. These efforts could yield positive results from mid-2015. Click here for report » Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) Our chips are all in! U/G BUY Share Price: MYR4.20 | Target Price: MYR5.15 (+23%) | MCap (USD): 7.7B | ADTV (USD): 4M Poor 2Q14 results was an anomaly, from our understanding. Trim earnings estimates by 4-6% nonetheless. GENM looks set to win an upstate NY commercial casino license, in our view. Value accretion at least MYR0.47/sh. Upgrade to BUY and raise TP 10% to MYR5.15. New TP assumes GENM will win an upstate NY license. Click here for report » Universal Robina Corp (URC PM) Going premium to boost margins Share Price: PHP180.90 | Target Price: PHP205 (+13%) | MCap (USD): 8.8B | ADTV (USD): 6M Forecasts upgraded to account for robust interim results and Griffin�s acquisition. Various initiatives including Griffin�s acquisition to help URC sustain higher sales and better margins. Reiterate BUY. Target price raised 16% to a Street-high PHP205. (Full report will be out soon) COMPANY NOTES The Link REIT (823 HK) | Company Visit Yinson Holdings (YNS MK) | Results Review Vard Holdings (VARD SP) | Company update The Link REIT (823 HK) Wong Tai Sin visit and briefing takeaways Share Price: HKD44.50 | Target Price: HKD43.60 (-2%) | MCap (USD): 13.2B | ADTV (USD): 23M Our visit to 3 assets in Wong Tai Sin reinforced our belief that Lions Rise was a good acquisition that�ll create synergies w/ its existing nearby assets. Lions Rise Mall was under-rented under Kerry and there�s much upside to rental reversion ahead. 53.4% of retail space up for renewal by Dec 2015. Tender for 5 asset disposals closed on Thursday; few details revealed except response was good. Expect results soon. Valuation-wise, Link REIT trades at an FY15 distribution yield of 4.02%, representing a spread of 201bp vs HK 10-year EFN, vs long-term average of 2.0%. Maintain HOLD. Click here for report » Yinson Holdings (YNS MK) New FPSO win a major catalyst Share Price: MYR3.38 | Target Price: MYR3.03 (-10%) | MCap (USD): 1.1B | ADTV (USD): 1.9M 1HFY1/15 results are tracking 12M expectations. Securing one new FPSO job for 2014 is a major catalyst. MYR3.03 TP under review pending outcome of Ghana�s tender, due soon. We are positive and maintain our BUY call. Click here for report » Vard Holdings (VARD SP) Bottomed-out valuations Share Price: SGD0.83 | Target Price: SGD1.15 (+39%) | MCap (USD): 772M | ADTV (USD): 3M Vard turns cautious on order wins. Order intake dropped off in 3Q14. Promar ramp-up may take time. But recovery intact. Brazil tax priced in. Operating leverage underappreciated. Stock trades at trough forward P/BV. Reiterate BUY. EPS cut by 5-10% for lower new orders. TP (1.4x FY15E P/BV) lowered to SGD1.15 from SGD1.25. Click here for report » ECONOMICS Singapore IPI, Aug �14 Singapore IPI, Aug �14 On an upward momentum Economics Industrial production growth in Aug 2014 picked up further to +4.2% YoY (revised Jul 2014: +3.0% YoY). Electronics and Biomedical output led the gains. Jul-Aug 2014 trend is positive for 3Q 2014 GDP after it slowed to 2.4% YoY in 2Q 2014 from 4.8% YoY in 1Q 2014. Click here for report »