Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2014-05-07)

Daily 07 May 2014 TOP VIEWS TCL Communication (2618 HK) | Company Update Ayala Land (ALI PM) | Results Review OSIM International (OSIM SP) | Results Review TCL Communication (2618 HK) NDR takeaways: on the right track Share Price: HKD8.63 | Target Price: HKD12.00 (+39%) | MCap (USD): 1.3B | ADTV: USD6M Maintain BUY and HKD12 TP. We remain bullish on TCL�s outlook following our NDR last week and think Street earnings forecasts are conservative. TCL expects to ship 7-8m smartphones and 1m tablets in 2Q14, with LTE models also starting shipment during 2Q14. The recent new wins of AT&T and Sprint (in addition to T-Mobile) could further boost volumes in 2H14. Click here for report » Ayala Land (ALI PM) Sustained earnings growth Share Price: PHP30.90 | Target Price: PHP37.80 (+22%) | MCap (USD): 9.9B | ADTV: USD8M Maintain BUY and TP of PHP37.80 (10% discount to NAV). Solid 25% earnings growth for 1Q14 can be sustained especially with new projects in the pipeline. Management is likely to continue its business strategy based on the successful 5-10-15 business model. Click here for report » OSIM International (OSIM SP) Expect stronger momentum Share Price: SGD2.71 | Target Price: SGD3.45 (+27%) | MCap (USD): 1.6B | ADTV: USD3M 1Q14 results exactly in-line with our expectation, with net profit attributable of SGD28.8m (vs forecast of SGD28.9m), up 15% YoY. We believe earnings growth momentum will accelerate during the year, with the launch of uDiva in the 2nd quarter and higher profit contributions from TWG. Reiterate BUY with a Street-high TP of SGD3.45. (FULL REPORT WILL BE SENT SOON) COMPANY NOTES SIA Engineering (SIE SP) | Results Review Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ) | TP Revision Hartalega (HART MK) | Results Review GMA Network Inc (GMA7 PM) | Results Review Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) | Results Review Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB) | Results Preview Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB) | Results Preview Regional Tech-Tracks SIA Engineering (SIE SP) | Results Review Special dividend surprise Share Price: SGD4.80 | Target Price: SGD5.75(+20%) | MCap (USD): 4.3B | ADTV (USD): 1M 4QFY3/14 net profit of SGD65.2m (-1.1% YoY) is marginally below expectations on weak JV contributions. Special DPS of 5 SGD cts brings full-year payout to 25 SGD cts, up 14% YoY and translates to attractive 5.2% yield. FY3/15E-17E forecasts revised by -7%/-1%/+7% on delayed ramp-up in workload. Maintain BUY and TP of SGD5.75. Click here for report » Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ) Slow improvement in loan quality Share Price: IDR1,155 | Target Price: IDR1,300 (+13%) | MCap (USD): 1.1B | ADTV (USD): 7M Cut TP to IDR1,300 (8.7x FY14F P/E, 1.1x FY14F P/BV) as NPL ratio remains stubbornly high. Maintain HOLD. Weak deposit base adds to pressure on earnings. Still an attractive M&A target, but consolidation among state-owned banks unlikely to be any time soon. Click here for report » Hartalega (HART MK) In a transition Share Price: MYR6.02 | Target Price: MYR6.70(+11%) | MCap (USD): 1.4B | ADTV (USD): 1M 4QFY3/14 results within our expectation but below street�s. A temporary earnings blip before charting steep growth in FY3/16. Maintain HOLD and MYR6.70 TP, but investors should look to accumulate on further weakness. Click here for report » GMA Network Inc (GMA7 PM) Lower ad revenues hit earnings Share Price: PHP7.93 | Target Price: PHP7.00 (-12%) | MCap (USD): 601M | ADTV (USD): 0.0M 1Q14 net income down 46% to PHP325m as revenues fall 12% due to lower regular ads and absence of election-related ads. 1Q14 income is 19% of our 2014F forecast of PHP1.75b. Maintain SELL with 10% potential downside to our PHP7.00 TP. Click here for report » Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) Overseas pipeline to drive growth Share Price: SGD5.38 | Target Price: SGD5.31 (-1%) | MCap (USD): 7.7B | ADTV (USD): 9M 1Q14 PATMI of SGD184.8m (+4.5% YoY, -17.4% QoQ) disappointed due to Sembcorp Marine�s weaker performance. Utilities segment PATMI of SGD91.6m (+2.5% YoY) was in line, with strong contribution from China (SGD16.7m, +33% YoY). Maintain HOLD with lower SOTP-based TP of SGD5.31. Click here for report » Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB) Single-digit growth Share Price: THB104.00 | Target Price: THB115.00(+11%) | MCap (USD): 2.3B | ADTV (USD): 2M Maintain BUY with new target price of THB115, based on DCF at 8.5% WACC. TP implies 6.7x PBV and 24.9x PER for FY15F. Price could rise nearly 10% YoY which offset the dropping in overall patient of 8% YoY. Hospital revenue is expected to increase 5% YoY. EBITDA margin could be maintained at 28%. Expect 1Q14F net profit of THB630m, +2% QoQ and +5% YoY, and this would 24% of our FY14 forecast. Earnings growth driven by annual price adjustment and price intensity. (FULL REPORT WILL BE SENT SOON) Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB) Double-digit decline Share Price: THB30.75 | Target Price: THB35.00 (+14%) | MCap (USD): 1.3B | ADTV (USD): 3M Maintain HOLD with DCF-based TP of THB35, implying 3.8x PBV and 31x PER FY14F. Average occupancy rate in 1Q14 expected to have reach 75.6% (80.3% in 4Q13, 84.3% in 1Q13), while ARR up 19% YoY. Thus, RevPar still up 21% QoQ and 7% YoY. On the other hand, SSSG to fall nearly 2% YoY due to political turmoil and sluggish domestic consumption. Expect 1Q14F profit of THB446m, 6% above consensus estimates. Earning growth is driven by strong growth in Maldives hotels and rising room rate. (FULL REPORT WILL BE SENT SOON) Quants Regional Tech-Tracks April US QE taper deflates sentiment Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and Philippines traded lower after the April US QE taper on 30 April. Vietnam�s VNINDEX bucked the trend among ASEAN equity markets with a minor rebound since its correction from the 609.46 peak. Top BUYS: Mitrajaya Holdings Berhad (MHB MK), Techtronic Industries Company Limited (669 HK), Cogent Holdings Limited (COG SP), PT Sidomulyo Selaras Tbk (SDMU IJ), Superblock Public Company Limited (SUPER TB) and Megaworld Corporation (MEG PM). Click here for report » FLASH NOTE Pruksa Real Estate (PS TB) | Flash Note Sharp drop in April presales Share Price: THB22.90 | Target Price: THB21.90(-4%) | MCap (USD): 1.6B | ADTV (USD): 3M Maintain HOLD on limited upside and challenging outlook. TP unchanged at THB21.9, pegged to 8.4x FY14E P/E. Prefer AP (BUY, TP THB6.5) and SPALI (BUY, TP THB25.5). April presales of THB2.1b marked a 55% MoM and 12% YoY contraction, with all product segments seeing a decline. 4M14 presales stood at THB10.3b, down 30% YoY, reaffirming our view on weak buying power of the low- to mid-income group, PS�s main target segment. Click here for report »