As widely
expected, the US FOMC decided to taper the size of its monthly asset
purchases by another US$10bn. The Committee announced that it will now
purchase US$55 billion in assets each month – US$25bn in MBS (down from
US$30bn) and US$30bn in Treasury debt (down from US$35bn) beginning in
April. The Committee revamped its forward guidance on interest rates,
moving toward more qualitative than quantitative language with the new
guidance paragraph drops the 6-1/2% unemployment rate threshold. But the
FOMC made it clear that the policy itself has not changed. Most on the
Committee do not expect to begin hiking rates from the current 0% to 0.25%
target range until 2015 or even 2016. News of the third tapering and
traders’ interpretation of a more timely return to a rate hike regime for
the Fed translated into the UD dollar index’s biggest single-day rally in
six months and the technical moves were more significant where the monetary
policy differences were starkest among the majors.
The Euro levitated by the ECB’s balance sheet
reduction and widening interest rates differential – reversed from a
multi-year high that was locked at high of 1.3967 at the early part of the
month to low of 1.3818 at time of writing as market participants turned to
be cautious entering into any strong positions in response to Janet
Yellen’s statements. The Japanese Yen also ended the week on the
depreciation bias from 101.63 on Monday to latest 102.30 in response to
drop in Nikkei 225 and to Kuroda’s commentary whereby he said much of the
yen’s excesses were reduced last year and that gave rise to the growing
reticent to boost QE in Japan sooner than expected.
With the third tapering in place, we saw some
loudest protest coming out again from emerging market currencies. In
response, the MSCI Emerging Market ETF dropped 2% on heavy volume with
Indonesian Rupiah fell most 1.16% against the US dollar, followed by
Philippines Peso of 0.89% and South Korean won of 0.82%. The feel-good of
Jokowi effect on Indonesian markets turned out to be short-lived event and
the equity markets fell 3.1%. Meanwhile, Philippines peso fell as the
overseas remittances grew 5.9% in January – slowest gains since September
and rising inflationary pressures. Korean won eased as rise in Korean bond
yields was limited compared to US rates and as foreigners selling on KOSPI
amid weak housing markets and subdued wage growth.
Malaysian Ringgit down 0.56% against the US dollar
for the review period from a low of 3.2783 on Monday to latest 3.2969,
attempting to test resistance of 3.3012 of the 50-day moving average. The
1-month NDF rallied past 3.3000 along with higher CNY fixing that rose from
6.1321 to latest 6.1460, which was a relatively sharp increase in the
aftermath of widening trading band of Chinese currency last week. The drop
in cross Sing dollar/Ringgit Malaysia from 2.5902 to 2.5862 in the review
period seemingly to have limited impact on the weakening Malaysia Ringgit.
On the macro front, the release of Bank Negara 2013 Annual Report showed
that the central bank is projecting a 5.3% real GDP growth in 2014,
slightly more optimistic than 5.0% forecasts made by the Ministry of
Finance (MoF) in October 2013. However, in reflecting the downside risk,
Bank Negara widened the forecast range by 4.5-5.5% in 2014 compared to the
range forecast of 5.0-5.5% of the MoF’s projection then. Bank Negara’s
surveys also suggested that investment will be broad based and
geographically diverse and expects the private investment to record another
year of strong double digit rate of 13.6% this year but inflationary
pressures is anticipated to rise further and the country is entering a
period of higher prices over the next two years. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s
foreign reserves stood at RM424.2 billion (equivalent to US$129.6 billion)
as of March 14, 2014 and is sufficient to finance 8.9 months of retained
imports and is 3.3 times the short-term external debt. Furthermore,
Malaysia’s consumer prices climbed 3.5% year-on-year and 0.3%
month-on-month in February, led by increases in transport, food and utility
costs.
Market Movers
for the Week
v From
US: Markit PMI (Mar P), Core PCE (Feb), C-S house prices (Jan), Consumer
confidence (Mar), Richmond Fed survey (Mar), New home sales (Feb), Durable
& capital goods orders (Feb), GDP (Q4 T), Pending home sales (Feb),
Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey (Mar), Personal income & spending
(Feb), University of Michigan consumer confidence (Mar), Core PCE (Feb),
Fed’s Stein, Lockhart, Plosser, Bullard, Pianalto, Evans and George speaks.
v From
Eurozone: Eurozone PMIs (Mar A), Consumer confidence (Mar F), Business
climate indicators (Mar), Germany PMIs (Mar A), IFO survey (Mar), Consumer
confidence (Apr), Retail sales (Feb), CPI (Mar), UK CPI (Feb), GDP (Q4),
Retail sales (Feb), GDP (Q4 F).
v From
Asia: China HSBC flash PMI (Mar), Industrial profits (Feb), Singapore CPI
(Feb), Industrial production (Feb), South Korea GDP (Q4), Consumer
confidence (Mar), Industrial production (Feb), Japan Jobless rate (Feb),
CPI (Mar), Retail trade (Feb), Philippines Trade (Jan), BSP Policy meeting,
Vietnam GDP (Q1), Trade (Mar), Taiwan Unemployment (Feb), Hong Kong Trade
(Feb).
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