FW: CIMB Fixed Income Navigator 4th Quarter 2017 - Dark Clouds Over The Horizon

 

 

RATIONALE SUMMARY

• MIST bond markets are likely to stay in a volatile range in 4Q17, but the bearish tone may be limited as perceived G3-EM interest rate differentials are unlikely to diverge too significantly given the heightening of fence-sitting rhetoric by the major central banks.
• Furthermore, 4Q17 will likely experience uncertainty in US politics and convolutions in DM monetary policy rhetoric while some EM Asia central banks consider a slightly more dovish pathway. 4Q17 may be a final pit stop where re-directional allocations are considered for 2018.
• We opine 1H18 will likely see QE tapering rhetoric gain further traction from both the US FOMC and ECB. Here, EM Asian bonds yields are expected to creep upwards although potentially dovish emanations from EM Asia could provide some buffer. Furthermore, the withdrawal of stimulus is likely to be gentle, and we opine Yellen's and Kuroda's successors would likely be both dovish with strong links to government.
• 2018 will see some capital "outflows" from EM Asia rather than "capital flight" given that financial markets remain flush with liquidity as central banks avoid a painful withdrawal of monetary stimulus. It appears that the Fed's communication of QE tapering has been successful so far without major dislocations in the fixed income markets.

 

 

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FW: RHB FIC Credit Markets Update - 29/9/17

 

 

29 September 2017

 

Credit Markets Update

                                               

GII 15y saw BTC of 1.73x; UST bull steepen

 

MYR Credit Market:

¨      Reopening 15y GII 08/33 auction was weaker. The 15y GII reopening saw demand fall as BTC was at 1.73x for its auctioned amount of MYR3bn with MYR1bn privately placed. This compared to 1.90x seen in a similar auction in March. The average yield of the auction was 4.579%, +6.9bps from its last trade a week before. As was expected, the spike in the USTs the day before pressured down the MGS markets in a bear steepening fashion, as the 3y MGS yields increased +3.2bps to 3.39%, whereas the 10y MGS yields rose +5.4bps to 3.94%. On the back of a still rallying USD, MYR weakened to 4.2315/USD (-0.24%), again underperforming its regional peers.

¨      In the primaries, Alliance Islamic Bank issued MYR130m of its MYR180m unrated subordinated sukuk murabahah programme. The 10nc5 sukuks were issued with a coupon of 5.50%, 191bps over the benchmark 5y MGS or 176bps over the last traded benchmark 5y GII.

¨      Govvies trading jumped as MYR4.1bn was traded. A large amount of which, close to MYR1.2bn surrounded the newly auctioned GII 08/33 where yields continued to rise to 4.61% (+3.4bps from average auctioned yield). The benchmark 7y GII 08/24 and 10y GII 07/27 saw trades of MYR240m and MYR320m respectively, and yields rise +5.7bps and +2.1bps to 4.03% and 4.11%. The benchmark 5y MGS 03/22 saw MYR390m trades ending at 3.59% (+4.8bps).

¨      Corporate trades continue to rise recording MYR893m. Secondary trading saw continued strong corporates change hands this time largely in the AA space. DANGA 27s saw MYR85m traded at 4.55% (-5.1bps). Ambank saw a total of MYR170m trades surrounding its AMBANK 22s callable 10/17 and subdebt AMBANK 23s callable 12/18 change hands at 3.71% (-8.3bps) and 4.47% (-5.6bps) respectively. The new issues of BGSM 25s were traded unchanged at 4.83%.

APAC USD Credit Market:

¨      USTs pare back losses and bull steepen. Following the spike in UST which followed through into Asian trading hours, the UST saw yields pared back losses as the UST yields retraced across tenures in a bull steepening trend. The 2y USTs rallied -2.0bps to 1.45% whereas the 10y USTs ended at 2.31% (-0.2bps). Expectations by economists following the tax reform measures support the initial findings of the Congressional Budget Office, which expects a widening of the fiscal deficit, differing from the view exerted by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that the resulting economic growth will result in the contrary. This has helped dampen the bullish sentiment following the announcement of the reform bill. The USD as seen by the DXY Index halted its rise slightly back down to 93.085 (-0.30%).

¨      Asian spreads widen in spite of spikes in UST. The average Asian ex Japan IG spreads widened +1.1bps to 165.6bps, while the yield on HY Asian ex Japan +4.0bps to 6.64%. This widening occurred in spite of the spikes in USTs.  The average IG Asia ex Japan CDS were largely unchanged rising +0.4bps to 83.2bps. Leading the widening in CDS levels were GS Caltex Corp and Petroliam Nasional Berhad which both saw spreads pick up +6.0bps and +5.8bps respectively. KT Corp, Export-Import Bank of China Ltd and Telekom Malaysia Bhd saw CDS level rise +4.0 to +4.9bps. DBS Bank Ltd subdebt and United Overseas Bank Ltd saw CDS levels fall -3.4bps and -2.8bps.

 

 

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FW: RHB FIC Rates & FX Market Update - 29/9/17

 

 

29 September 2017

 

 

Rates & FX Market Update

 

 

Asian Currencies Pressured by USD Strength

 

Highlights

 

¨   Global Markets: Upward dollar momentum faded overnight as investors and various commentaries casted doubts over the feasibility of Trump's proposed tax plans; the downward DXY movement (-0.3% overnight) came despite an upward revision to the 2Q17 GDP print (3.1%; consensus: 3.0%). The 7y UST auction delivered a strong result, stopping through the WI by 1.1bps (HY: 2.130%), amid strong demand from both direct and indirect buyers, with dealers' allocation standing at 10.4% and one of the lowest on record; the strong results were in spite of an imminent Fed's balance sheet tapering in October. We continue to position for a flatter UST curve over the next 4 quarters, with 10y yields likely to be kept below the 2.50% level; maintain a neutral UST duration view. Over in Japan, August headline CPI climbed 0.7% y-o-y, ahead of consensus expectation at 0.6%, although remaining far behind BoJ's persistently unachievable 2% target. BoJ's preferred measure of core inflation rose 0.2% y-o-y (ex-food, ex-energy), despite a relatively sanguine economic outlook still after 6 straight quarters of positive growth, reflecting the difficulty faced by the BoJ in reversing embedded structural deflationary factors. We expect BoJ to maintain its 10y yield target around the 10bps mark, alongside flexibility in its QQE program given mounting supply restrictions; we continue to remain underweight Japanese duration.

¨   AxJ Markets: Over in Indonesia, the USDIDR pair broke above the 13,500 level overnight amid upward USD momentum, reaching the highest level since the beginning of January; the pair subsequently retraced below the 13,500 level this morning. Senior BI officials have been aware of rising USDIDR volatility, and warned that the central bank could intervene to guard against undue currency depreciations; eye the 13,600 level as the next near-term resistance.

¨   USDCNY climbed c.0.3% overnight, extending its gains to almost c.3% since its early-September lows when PBoC relaxed requirements for Yuan trading. While a significant portion of the move can be explained by the resurgent USD strength in recent weeks, the CEFTS CNY basket also fell marginally over the month, as PBoC seeks to limit any rapid CNY appreciation while turning more comfortable with 2-way Yuan movements. We do not expect any significant CNY developments over the coming weeks ahead of the CPC, while only eyeing a very gradual CNY depreciation over the medium term; stay neutral CNY.

 

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FW: Country Risk Monitor: THAILAND

 

 

 

Dear Sir/ Madam,

 

We are pleased to inform you that we have published a report entitled “Country Risk Monitor: Thailand” on our website which can be accessed via the link below:

 

• Country Risk Monitor: Thailand

 

We trust you will find this report informative.

 

 

 

 

FW: AmBank Research - Gamuda : FY17 core net profit grows 12% BUY, 29 Sep 2017

 

 

STOCK FOCUS OF THE DAY         

Gamuda : FY17 core net profit grows 12%                                                             BUY

 

We maintain our BUY call, and keep relatively unchanged our forecasts and SOP-based FV of RM5.95 (Exhibit 2) which values Gamuda's construction business at 16x CY18 net profit, in line with our benchmark 1-year forward P/E of 14-16x for large-cap construction stocks.

 

Gamuda's FY17 core net profit of RM700.5mil (excluding RM98.5mil impairment loss on its SMART tunnel concession) met consensus estimates but beat our forecast by 6%. The key variance against our forecast came from stronger-than-expected property profits from Vietnam. Overall, its FY17 core net profit grew 12% YoY driven by improved performance from all key divisions, namely, construction, property and concession.

 

Gamuda reiterated its guidance for RM10bil new construction job wins over the next 12 months “from the rollout of several rail-based mega projects” which we believe include the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), KL-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) and MRT3. While Gamuda downplays its chances of winning a LRT3 viaduct package, it is bullish on ECRL.

 

 

Others :

Kimlun Corp : Strong order backlog to sustain earnings                                   BUY

Telekom Malaysia : Raising webe stake to 86%                                                   BUY

Banking Sector : Delay in implementation of net stable funding ratio       OVERWEIGHT

 

 

STOCKS ON RADAR

Federal Furniture Hldgs, Samchem Hldgs, Guan Chong,Brahims Hldgs

 

 

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHT

US : GDP unlikely to meet 3% target

 

 

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

Construction Sector  : Malaysia-Singapore rail link projects gaining traction

Kuantan Flour Mills : To issue more shares to white knight

Berjaya Corp : Narrows 1Q net loss on lower tax expense

Lay Hong : Margins still strong

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER:

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmInvestment Bank Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmInvestment Bank Bhd. Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmBank Group Bhd and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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FW: [Maybank] US, EU CPIs Today

 

 

GBL: US, EU CPIs Today Global Markets Daily by Saktiandi Supaat FX Research USD rebound stalled amid profit taking on tactical USD longs post-release of US tax reform outline (felt like "buy on rumor, sell on fact" play). 2Q GDP (third print) came in stronger than previous at 3.1% q/q vs. 3% previously. Upward revision was due to inventories. Strong GDP still point to strong underlying momentum supported by consumer spending and business investments. Focus today on US PCE core and EU CPI which may keep EURUSD active. Closer to home, USDCNY continued its rebound... Saktiandi Supaat    (65) 6320 1379    saktiandi@maybank.com.sg Christopher Wong    (65) 6320 1347    wongkl@maybank.com.sg Disclaimer This message is intended only for the use of the person to whom it is expressly addressed and may contain information that is confidential and legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use, reliance on, reference to, review, disclosure or copying of the message and the information it contains for any purpose is prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender by return e-mail immediately and delete all its contents. If you wish to read Disclaimer in details, please click HERE. To unsubscribe or change preference settings, please click here to contact your representative.

FW: 20170929 AmBank FX Daily Outlook

 

 

Highlights of today’s AmBank FX Daily Outlook as follows:-

v  Dollar falls v  MYR to fluctuate in the range of 4.2168-4.2357 against US dollar v  Key Watch: (i) UK Broadbent & Carney speeches; (ii) EU ECB Draghi speech; (iii) Aug US PCE Price Index; (iv) Q2 UK GDP Growth rate; (v) Sep EU Inflation rate surveyed at 1.6%; (vi) Sep Germany unemployment rate; (vii) Aug Malaysia PPI

 

 

 

FW: Government Bond Auction Results_20170928

 

 

Dear all,

 

Results: GII 8/33 Reopening

·         Modest bids. Today’s 15y GII 8/33 reopening auction garnered a muted bid/cover of 1.73x on a larger than expected total issuance size of MYR4b (MYR3b auction + MYR1b private placement). The positive bond sentiment seen earlier in the month has waned in recent days after the hawkish tone by US Fed members and the rebound in USD with USDMYR pair currently around 4.23 levels. Participation in this auction was largely from domestic Islamic accounts particularly lifers and pension funds.

·         Successful bids averaged 4.579% in yield and cut off near the top end of pre-auction WI range 4.65/48% with a high 4.64%. Lowest successful yield bid was 4.52%.

·         Scheduled auctions in October will start with the retap on 7y MGS 9/24 in a size of MYR3.5b we estimate.

 

Bid to cover:            1.727

Highest yield:           4.640%

Average yield:         4.579%

Lowest yield:           4.520%

Cut off:                   53%

 

 

 

 

FW: Fixed Income Daily Pulse - 28 September 2017

 

 

Good Evening,
Today’s trade recap by our trading desk:-
·         The movement in UST yields and the strength of USD was dictating movements in the local market today. As UST 10y rose to 2.35% during the day on the back of tax plans announced in the US coupled with a hawkish Fed, the local market was under selling pressure as yields rose 3-6bps across. This was also contributed by a weak 15Y GII auction today was saw a 12 bps high/low range averaging 4.579%. Liquidity in the secondary market was dry in such market conditions and traded volume was rather light.
Malaysia Government Bonds Benchmark Issues MGS Closing Level (%) Change (bp) Volume (RM m) 3-yr 3.410 +3.5 10 5-yr 3.600 +2.5 - 7-yr 3.855 +5.0 76 10-yr 3.945 +6.0 - 15-yr 4.350 +2.5 70 20-yr 4.565 +3.5 2 30-yr 4.820 +2.0 - Source: BondStream, AmBank	Interest Rate Swap Closing Rates IRS Closing Yield (%) Change (bp) 1-yr 3.510 1.0 3-yr 3.630 1.5 5-yr 3.750 2.0 7-yr 3.850 1.0 10-yr 3.980 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, AmBank

 

 

 

FW: AAM News Express

 

 

 

If you cannot view this mail please click here.   Latest News  |  Magazine  |  Events  |  Best of the Best Awards  |  E-Magazine   Latest News 29 September 2017 Asia Asset Management to announce pension award winners for 2017 Awards & Rankings: AAM will shortly be announcing the winners of its Best Public Pension and Best Private Pension in Asia   2017 AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management winner announced Awards & Rankings: This year's winning paper, from close to 60 excellent applications, is entitled Global Market Inefficiencies Read More Financial assets in Southeast Asia grow, but debt build-up a concern Research: Pace of growth of financial assets in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia doubles in 2016 Read More High net worth individuals' wealth to top US$100 trillion by 2025 Equity Markets: Wealth and ranks of global high net worth individuals at record high in 2016, fuelled by investment gains Read More Monthly Top Ten Yen Leng Ong named country head Singapore and head of Southeast Asia at Northern Trust Asian outbound real estate investment doubles in first half 2017 Korea Postal Savings sets sights on real asset investment opportunities Liquidnet Asia Pacific's Tristan Baldwin promoted to head of sales AllianceBernstein HK poaches Gabriel Gondard from BlackRock AMAC cracks down on "missing" PE managers Korea Investment Corporation to launch ESG mandate China guidelines clarify approval process for overseas investments Speculated merger would make Fullerton a top asset manager in Southeast Asia APG and E Fund launch first China-focused sustainable investing strategy   Coming Up

 

 

FW: [Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia

 

 

COMPANY RESEARCH Gamuda | FY17 core earnings in-line Adrian Wong Kimlun Bhd | Better outlook ahead Adrian Wong MPHB Capital | Sale of 21% stake in MPI rejected Desmond Ch'ng MACRO RESEARCH Malaysia | Nasdaq 100 Index: Stronger Base has been Established Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah NEWS Outside Malaysia Other News COMPANY RESEARCH Malaysia TP Revision Gamuda (GAM MK) by Adrian Wong Share Price: MYR5.29 Target Price: MYR5.90 Recommendation: Buy FY17 core earnings in-line Gamuda's FY7/17 core net profit was within expectations supported by its construction division from acceleration of KVMRT 2 works and its property segment with record presales of MYR2.4b in FY17. Gamuda's strong outstanding construction oderbook of MYR7.8b and unbilled property sales of MYR2.0b would support core earnings growth in FY18. Keep our earnings unchanged. Our RNAV-based TP is trimmed to MYR5.90 (-10sen) after updating i) latest property GDVs, ii) SMART impairment and iii) share base. FYE Jul (MYR m) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E Revenue 2,121.9 3,211.4 4,031.6 4,032.3 EBITDA 548.5 831.2 804.9 907.5 Core net profit 626.1 700.6 761.9 823.2 Core EPS (sen) 26.0 24.2 22.6 24.4 Core EPS growth (%) (10.2) (6.9) (6.6) 8.1 Net DPS (sen) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Core P/E (x) 20.4 21.9 23.4 21.7 P/BV (x) 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 Net dividend yield (%) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 ROAE (%) 9.5 8.4 9.9 10.1 ROAA (%) 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 29.0 24.5 29.0 25.0 Net debt/equity (%) 55.2 59.8 60.9 48.7 Adrian Wong    (603) 2297 8675    adrian.wkj@maybank-ib.com Chew Hann Wong    (603) 2297 8686    wchewh@maybank-ib.com Malaysia Rating Change Kimlun Bhd (KICB MK) by Adrian Wong Share Price: MYR2.18 Target Price: MYR2.49 Recommendation: Buy Better outlook ahead Having secured e.MYR930m of job wins YTD, outstanding orderbook stands at a robust e.MYR2b, providing decent earnings visibility. Precast contribution is also set to improve in 4Q17 when contribution from KVMRT 2 kicks in. Our FY17 job win assumption is raised to MYR1b as YTD job wins has exceeded our initial assumption of MYR700m. Earnings are raised by 2%-8% for FY17-19. We upgrade Kimlun to a BUY with a higher TP of MYR2.49 (+8%) based on unchanged 10x FY18 PER (+0.5SD). FYE Dec (MYR m) FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E Revenue 1,053.6 940.7 1,238.3 1,215.8 EBITDA 112.7 130.9 104.2 121.2 Core net profit 64.4 80.7 63.2 76.2 Core EPS (sen) 21.4 26.4 20.7 24.9 Core EPS growth (%) 90.5 23.0 (21.7) 20.5 Net DPS (sen) 5.8 6.5 5.6 6.7 Core P/E (x) 10.2 8.3 10.6 8.8 P/BV (x) 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 Net dividend yield (%) 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.1 ROAE (%) na na na na ROAA (%) 6.8 8.2 6.0 6.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.3 5.1 6.7 5.9 Net debt/equity (%) 14.3 6.7 4.7 7.1 Adrian Wong    (603) 2297 8675    adrian.wkj@maybank-ib.com Chew Hann Wong    (603) 2297 8686    wchewh@maybank-ib.com Malaysia Company Update MPHB Capital (MPHB MK) by Desmond Ch'ng Share Price: MYR1.38 Target Price: MYR1.34 Recommendation: Hold Sale of 21% stake in MPI rejected That Generali's call option over a further 21% stake in MPI Generali (MPI) cannot be exercised is a setback for MPHB. This development means that MPHB will find it harder to monetize its investment in MPI and it creates more uncertainty as to when the group can resume dividend/capital repayments, if any. We maintain our HOLD call but raise our RNAV discount to 50% from 30% previously to reflect this uncertainty. Our SOP-derived TP is therefore cut to MYR1.34 from MYR1.87. FYE Dec (MYR m) FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E Core net profit 41.2 41.1 37.6 42.5 Core EPS (MYR) 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 Core EPS growth (%) (23.8) (0.2) (8.5) 13.0 Net DPS (MYR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Core P/E (x) 23.9 24.0 26.2 23.2 P/BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Net dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Book value (MYR) 2.23 2.30 2.35 2.41 ROAE (%) 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 ROAA (%) 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 Desmond Ch'ng    (603) 2297 8680    desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com MACRO RESEARCH MY: Traders' Almanac Nasdaq 100 Index: Stronger Base has been Established by Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah Technical Research FBMKLCI fell 6.18pts to 1,758.06 yesterday after succumbed to another round of selling pressure led by declines in ASTRO, WPRTS and GENM. Market breadth turned negative with losers outpacing gainers by 506 to 328. A total of 2.31b shares worth MYR2.18b changed hands. FBMKLCI extended its losing streak to eighth consecutive day. But as the index is treading near its support level, there is a glimpse of hope that bargain hunting may surface today. Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah    (603) 2297 8694    nikmohdihsan.ra@maybank-ib.com Tee Sze Chiah    (603) 2082 6858    szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com NEWS Outside Malaysia: U.S: Jobless claims rise on Irma's effects in Florida, Georgia. U.S. filings for unemployment benefits rose last week on increases in Florida and Georgia after the south-eastern states were hit by Hurricane Irma, Labor Department figures showed. Initial filings rose 12k to 272k. Continuing claims decreased by 45k to 1.934m in week ended Sept. 16. Four-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, rose to 277,750, highest since Feb. 2016, from 268,750 in prior week. (Source: Bloomberg) E.U: Euro-area economic confidence surged more than forecast in September, giving European Central Bank policy makers more positive news to consider as they decide on the future of their bond-buying program. The index of industry and consumer sentiment increased to 113 in September from 111.9 the previous month, the European Commission said. The central bank's Governing Council will have to weigh a booming economy against inflation showing few signs of a sustained pickup toward its goal, when it decides on adjustments to the asset purchase program on Oct. 26. (Source: Bloomberg) Japan: Inflation rises 0.7% YoY in August amid tight job market. Japanese prices extended their run of gains to eight months, rising the most in more than two years. While that's progress, it still leaves inflation at less than half the central bank's target, despite the tightest labor market in decades. Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, increased 0.7% YoY in August. Excluding fresh food and energy, prices rose 0.2% YoY. The unemployment rate remained at 2.8% .Household spending rose 0.6% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg) Indonesia: Central bank said it will continue to intervene in the foreign-exchange market to support the currency after the rupiah slumped to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar. Bank Indonesia will continue to guard the currency in line with fundamentals and still maintains an exchange rate target of 13,420 rupiah per dollar for the year end, Dody Budi Waluyo, executive director of economic and monetary policy, told Bloomberg. (Source: Bloomberg) Other News: MCE Holdings: Wins MYR33m Perodua parts supply deal. The group has bagged contracts worth MYR33m to supply various electronic and mechatronic components and parts for Perodua's new car models. The automotive parts manufacturer and trader said the job — with an expected total investment cost of MYR1m — is expected to begin sometime between May and July next year, and is for a seven-year period. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily) Matang: Setback for Matang in MYR180m land acquisition in Raub. Matang's plan to acquire two parcels of leasehold agricultural land with property erected thereupon in Raub, Pahang, for MYR180m was held back by an injunction granted by the High Court.The company today received a letter from one of the parties involved in the sale, Raub Mining & Development Co S/B, informing it that the disposal of the assets will be put on hold due to the injunction. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily) Disclaimer This email and its attachment(s) are confidential and are intended solely for the use of the individual to whom it is addressed. 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