Friday, September 30, 2016

European Banking Woes Fueled Risk Aversion, Weighing on EGBs

30 September 2016


Rates & FX Market Update


European Banking Woes Fueled Risk Aversion, Weighing on EGBs

Highlights

¨   Global Markets: The array of Fedspeak had a fairly limited impact on USTs as investors appeared to have looked beyond the next FFR hike, with expections for monetary tightening trajectory to remain shallow. Stronger than expected US data failed to offset the rising risk aversion within global markets, with yields on USTs declining 1-2bps overnight; 2y and 10y USTs remained range bounded within 0.70-0.85% and 1.50-1.75% respectively since July. Over in EU, debates over Deutsche Bank woes and its potential USD14bn fine fueled risk aversion in the region given the potential spillovers throughout the weak banking system. Yields on 10y EGBs climbed 2-4bps overnight, where we maintain our recommendation for investors to favour core EGBs over its peripheral counterparts. Elsewhere, the lackluster CPI from Japan (Aug: -0.5%; Jul: -0.5%) reinforced the obstacles faced by BoJ policy makers amid increasing uncertainties within the global market; USDJPY climbed higher to 101.09 (+0.36%) yesterday, with hawkish Fedspeak and risk aversion over the coming week likely to continue easing downward pressure on USD.
¨   AxJ Markets: Deeper contractions in South Korea’s manufacturing PMI offset optimism stemming from the strengthening IP data released this morning, limiting further upward climb in KTB yields over the near term. With KRW assets remaining highly susceptible to FOMC FFR decisions alongside limitations towards BoK’s inclination to reduce policy rates aggressively, we recommend for investors to maintain the mild underweight duration view, with expectations for BoK to reduce only by 12.5bps in 4Q, capped by concerns over household indebtedness. Narrowing Fed-BoK policy rate differentials is also likely to hold a large bearing on KRW, where we expect the pair to climb modestly higher to 1150 by 2Q17, edging alongside the USDCNY pair.
¨   Oil prices sustained strong gains post OPEC agreement, but failed to bolster gains on commodity currencies, with AUDUSD falling to 0.763 overnight (-0.73%). The short-lived gains were attributed to weaker risk appetite stemming from Deutsche Bank woes and its potential spillover to European Banking system. Keep a neutral AUD view, with the OPEC November meeting to play a crucial role in influencing commodity currencies.

More Issuances from Asian FIs; RHB Bank Priced 5y Senior at T+137.5

30 September 2016


Credit Markets Update

More Issuances from Asian FIs; RHB Bank Priced 5y Senior at T+137.5
¨      APAC USD Credit Market: Asian Credits held steady following OPEC output deal. IG spreads and average HY bond yields were firm at 189.2 and 6.30% respectively, whereas Asian IG CDS plummeted close to 7bps to 111.5bps driven by South-East Asian corporate CDS (Petronas, CapitaLand and SingTel). Benchmark USTs yields were narrowed 1-2bps amid on-going concerns over Deutsche Bank. UST2y edged 2bps lower to 0.73%, while the 10y dipped 1bp to 1.56%. Banking names dominated primary issuances. China Citic Bank International (issue rating: Ba2/NR/NR) sold USD500m AT1 Pnc5 at 4.25% (IPT: 4.625% area). Kasikornbank (Baa1/BBB+/BBB+)’s HK unit, received USD950m orders for its USD400m 5.5y bond priced at T+127.5bps (IPT: +145bps), while RHB Bank (issue rating: A3/BBB+/NR) was oversubscribed by 3.8x for USD500m 5y bond priced at T+137.5bps against IPT at +165bps. Other issues includes, Jubilant Pharma Ltd (NR/BB-/BB-) and TVB Finance (NR), where the former received a low BTC of 1.8x for USD300m 5nc3 bond at 4.875% (IPT: 4.875%), whereas, the latter sold USD500m 5y bonds at 3.625% (IPT: 4.125% area).
¨      SGD Credit Market: Croesus retaps additional SGD50m. There was a keen widening in the short-to-mid SOR benchmark, with the 2y and 5y rising by 7.5-7.7bps to close at 1.44% and 1.76% respectively, even as the USDSGD weakened by 0.38% to 1.364. Brent oil prices rose 1.1% to USD49.2/bbl, with yields of GUOSLP and PREHSP coming in lower (according to Bloomberg). According to Bloomberg, Croesus Retail Trust (NR), a Japanese retail REIT, is planning to retap an additional SGD50m from its SGD60m CROESP 5% 4/20 at 99.5. Looking ahead, Singapore’s 3Q private property prices (2Q: -0.4%) and Sept PMI (Aug: 49.8) will be released on Monday.
¨      MYR Credit Market: Good demand for 20y GII auction. The tender of MYR2.0bn 20y GII 10/35 attracted strong BTC of 2.88x at average yield of 4.226%. Yield for the 20y benchmark continued to inch lower post-auction, which ended the day 3bps firmer at 4.192%. Other benchmarks generally moved sideways with the 10y MGS settling flat at 3.54%. MYR strengthened 0.4% to 4.1245/USD yesterday amid potential coordination among the OPEC members to stabilize oil prices. Strong trading volumes of MYR987m were seen in the corporate market. Notably, Prasarana 3/24, PLUS ’26-36, BGSM 12/20 and TCMH 11/21 closed mostly flattish on combined MYR355m trades. Elsewhere, Public Islamic’s T2 6/24c19 rose 2bps to 4.246%. Over the primary market, UMW (AA2) priced MYR700m across 3y-10y at 4.82%-5.22%, with proceeds likely for debt refinancing purposes.

US Treasuries weakened in the earlier session, but ended firmer in conjunction with lower stock prices, as DJIA fell by 195 points to 18143. The 10T yield peaked at 1.60%, and eventually

Market Roundup
  • US Treasuries weakened in the earlier session, but ended firmer in conjunction with lower stock prices, as DJIA fell by 195 points to 18143. The 10T yield peaked at 1.60%, and eventually dipped to 1.56% late Thursday.
  • We noted heavier trading in Ringgit bond market, driven by the positive sentiment on the back of surge in oil prices following the recent OPEC’s agreement to cut production, in conjunction with the 20-year GII reopening auction. The RM2 billion 20-year GII reopening auction saw good demand with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.89 times. Average yield stopped at 4.226%, within a narrow spread of 4.210-4.238%, way lower than WI 4.29% quoted a day prior the tender.
  • Thai govvies ended with little changes, amid light profit taking activities after the recent gains. Apart from that, daily volume shrank from Bt18.7 billion to Bt9.5 billion, whilst activities were slanted towards LB226A, LB25DA and LB196A. Focus will be on the trade data releases on Friday.
  • Indonesian government bonds were dealt weaker as USD/IDR retraced to above 12950 and closed at 12970. Offshore banks were seen on the selling side, especially on the benchmark series, pushing the yield curve higher by 3-4bps on average. Tax amnesty revenue reached IDR89 trillion as of Thursday. Meanwhile, BI added liquidity in the market on Thursday and two days prior through monetary operations (7-day repo) to ensure the smooth tax payment.

► Company Update – Scicom (MSC) (BUY, maintain) - Growing even after accounting for tax

Today’s Highlights
    Company Update – Scicom (MSC) (BUY, maintain) - Growing even after accounting for tax
    Economy  – ASEAN Outlook – Weekly Wrap - Thai’s export rebounded due partly to automobile exports



Outside Malaysia            
    US stocks retreat as Deutsche Bank woes hit financial shares
    US economy expanded at revised 1.4% rate in second quarter
    Pending sales of US existing homes fall to seven-month low
    Fewer Americans than forecast filed for jobless claims last week
    Euro area economic confidence rises to highest since January
    German unemployment unexpectedly rises in sign economy slowing
    Taiwan holds key interest rate, pausing one-year of easing
    Oil extends advance as OPEC agrees to first output cut in 8 years

US GDP Growth Revised Higher for 2Q 2016, On Stronger Gross Private Investment

Economic Research
30 September 2016
Global News

Economic Highlights




US GDP Growth Revised Higher for 2Q 2016, On Stronger Gross Private Investment

Fate of Italy’s Economy at Risk If Renzi’s Key Referendum Fails

Japan’s Retail Sales Decline for First Time in Three Months

Economist: 
Peck Boon Soon  | +603 9280 2163
Vincent Loo Yeong Hong  | +603 9280 2172
Ng Kee Chou  | +603 9280 2179
Rizki Fajar  | +6221 2970 7065
Zhang Fan| +8621 6288 9611 ext 105
Aris Nazman Maslan | +603 9280 2184



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23 September 2016

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