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FEATURE
CALLS
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Malaysia | AMMB Holdings
NIM compression
larger than expected; D/G to SELL
Desmond Ch'ng
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Share
Price:
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MYR5.35
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Target
Price:
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MYR5.85
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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4Q15 results
miss on higher credit costs
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FY15 earnings were below expectations and our FY16/17
earnings have been lowered by about 8% respectively on account of
higher credit cost assumptions. Positively though, its recent Career
Transition Scheme (CTS) should provide savings of up to MYR200m per
annum to support earnings growth in FY16. We maintain our TP of MYR5.85
pegged to a 2016 PBV of 0.9x, with a projected ROE of 8.9% for FY16.
HOLD.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Operating income
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6,234.9
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6,191.2
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6,303.2
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6,572.7
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Pre-provision profit
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2,823.7
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2,398.0
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2,863.4
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2,991.6
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Core net profit
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1,925.6
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1,689.2
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1,775.7
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1,831.1
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Core EPS (MYR)
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0.71
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0.65
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0.57
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0.59
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Core EPS growth (%)
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3.2
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(9.2)
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(11.5)
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2.6
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Net DPS (MYR)
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0.06
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0.12
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0.14
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0.15
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Core P/E (x)
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7.5
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8.2
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9.3
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9.1
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P/BV (x)
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0.7
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0.7
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1.0
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0.9
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Net dividend yield (%)
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1.1
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2.2
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2.6
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2.8
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Book value (MYR)
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7.31
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7.51
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5.40
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5.89
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ROAE (%)
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10.8
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8.1
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8.9
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10.5
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ROAA (%)
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0.9
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0.8
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0.8
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0.8
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Share
Price:
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MYR4.50
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Target
Price:
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MYR4.10
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Recommendation:
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Sell
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NIM compression
larger than expected; D/G to SELL
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While AMMB’s 9MFY16 results were within expectations, this
was on the back of ongoing net credit recoveries which may not be
sustainable. Amid ongoing NIM compression and cautious expansion,
earnings growth is likely to be muted and we project ROEs of just over
8%. We see little catalyst and downgrade the stock to SELL, with a
lower TP of MYR4.10 (FY17 P/BV of 0.8x) vs MYR4.90 previously (CY16
P/BV of 0.9x).
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FYE Mar (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Operating income
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4,721.5
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4,721.5
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3,777.5
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3,906.9
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Pre-provision profit
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2,559.2
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2,563.6
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1,713.2
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1,862.2
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Core net profit
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1,687.7
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1,638.0
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1,371.1
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1,308.5
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Core EPS (MYR)
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0.56
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0.54
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0.45
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0.43
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Core EPS growth (%)
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3.9
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(2.9)
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(16.5)
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(4.6)
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Net DPS (MYR)
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0.24
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0.27
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0.20
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0.19
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Core P/E (x)
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8.0
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8.3
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9.9
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10.4
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P/BV (x)
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1.0
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0.9
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0.9
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0.9
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Net dividend yield (%)
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5.4
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6.1
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4.4
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4.2
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Book value (MYR)
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4.36
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4.80
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5.04
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5.29
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ROAE (%)
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13.4
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11.9
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9.2
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8.4
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ROAA (%)
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1.3
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1.2
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1.0
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0.9
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.00
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.45
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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FY15: Above
expectations
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BArmada turning around, with much focus on cost and
growth. FY15 core earnings were ahead of our forecasts on higher
T&I works in 4Q. FY16 will be a pedestrian year, which is to be
expected. The excitement lies in FY17, as the commencement of 4 new FPSO/FSU
charters will see a 2.4x jump in earnings momentum. We raise FY16/17
net profit forecasts by 61%/8% and lift our SOP-based TP to MYR1.45
(+21%) to incorporate its Malta FSU operations and cost savings from
effective costs/cashflow management.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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2,397.3
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2,179.7
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2,224.6
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3,687.2
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EBITDA
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1,029.4
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1,101.7
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1,277.0
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1,887.1
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Core net profit
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399.6
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360.7
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371.4
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885.1
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Core EPS (sen)
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7.9
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6.1
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6.3
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15.1
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(48.4)
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(22.2)
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3.0
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138.3
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Net DPS (sen)
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1.6
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0.8
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0.0
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0.0
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Core P/E (x)
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12.7
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16.3
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15.8
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6.6
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P/BV (x)
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0.8
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0.8
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0.8
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0.7
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Net dividend yield (%)
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1.6
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0.8
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0.0
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0.0
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ROAE (%)
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7.2
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5.2
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5.0
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11.0
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ROAA (%)
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3.4
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2.2
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2.0
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4.4
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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8.2
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11.4
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10.1
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6.3
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Net debt/equity (%)
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43.2
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89.6
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91.4
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70.3
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.57
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.30
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Recommendation:
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Sell
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Surprise
downstream purchase
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We are Neutral on FGV’s latest plan to acquire a
55%-equity stake in Zhong Ling Nutril-Oil Holdings Ltd (ZL) for
MYR0.98b cash. On paper, valuation appears decent at 9-12x 2013-15 PERs
and 3x 2013 audited NAV. However, we believe China’s consumer market is
full of challenges despite its potential. Maintain SELL and TP of
MYR1.30 on 16x 2016 PER.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY13A
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FY14A
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FY15E
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FY16E
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Revenue
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12,568.0
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16,434.3
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14,969.4
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15,935.8
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EBITDA
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1,593.3
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1,293.9
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824.2
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1,075.7
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Core net profit
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14.8
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95.7
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138.0
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295.8
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Core EPS (sen)
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0.4
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2.6
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3.8
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8.1
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(97.9)
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545.6
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44.2
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114.3
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Net DPS (sen)
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16.0
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10.0
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2.5
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4.1
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Core P/E (x)
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386.2
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59.8
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41.5
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19.4
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P/BV (x)
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0.9
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0.9
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0.9
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0.9
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Net dividend yield (%)
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10.2
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6.4
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1.6
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2.6
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ROAE (%)
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0.2
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1.5
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2.2
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4.5
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ROAA (%)
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0.1
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0.5
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0.7
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1.4
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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11.6
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9.0
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11.9
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9.0
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
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18.8
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24.2
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19.3
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Share
Price:
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MYR3.52
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Target
Price:
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MYR3.90
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Outlook still
challenging
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While we continue to like BIMB for its strong fundamentals
and high capitalization, we have taken a more cautious stance on Bank
Islam’s personal financing portfolio, which currently accounts for 30%
of total financing. We maintain our HOLD call but with a marginally
higher SOP-based TP of MYR3.90 (+10sen).
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Operating income
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2,122.5
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2,289.7
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2,403.7
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2,474.7
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Pre-provision profit
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871.7
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908.3
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938.0
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957.4
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Core net profit
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532.3
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547.3
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535.2
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552.6
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Core EPS (MYR)
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0.36
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0.35
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0.35
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0.36
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Core EPS growth (%)
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37.9
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(0.4)
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(2.1)
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3.2
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Net DPS (MYR)
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0.15
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0.12
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0.12
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0.13
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Core P/E (x)
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9.9
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9.9
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10.1
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9.8
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P/BV (x)
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1.8
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1.6
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1.4
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1.3
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Net dividend yield (%)
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4.2
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3.5
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3.4
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3.6
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Book value (MYR)
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1.97
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2.21
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2.44
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2.67
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ROAE (%)
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18.5
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17.2
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14.9
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14.0
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ROAA (%)
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1.0
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1.0
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0.9
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0.9
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Sunway (SWB MK)
by Wei Sum
Wong
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Share
Price:
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MYR3.01
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Target
Price:
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MYR3.31
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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A good year
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Sunway’s FY15 results came in above our expectation but
within consensus estimates. FY15 locked-in sales was MYR912m or 22%
above its sales target for FY15. Despite a weak property market
outlook, Sunway sets a higher sales target of MYR1.1b for FY16 (+21%
YoY). We raise our FY16/17 earnings forecasts by 8%/4%. Maintain HOLD
with a higher RNAV-TP of MYR3.31 (+7sen) based on an unchanged 40%
discount to RNAV.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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4,841.9
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4,451.3
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5,370.4
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5,389.9
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EBITDA
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504.2
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427.8
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765.5
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825.2
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Core net profit
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591.7
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590.7
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526.2
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589.8
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Core FDEPS (sen)
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32.5
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31.6
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26.1
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29.3
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Core FDEPS growth(%)
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20.7
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(2.8)
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(17.3)
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12.1
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Net DPS (sen)
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11.0
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37.0
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8.6
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8.8
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Core FD P/E (x)
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9.3
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9.5
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11.5
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10.3
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P/BV (x)
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0.9
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0.8
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0.7
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0.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
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3.7
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12.3
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2.8
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2.9
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ROAE (%)
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10.5
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9.5
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7.4
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7.5
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ROAA (%)
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4.9
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4.1
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3.2
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3.4
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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15.6
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21.8
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12.8
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13.7
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Net debt/equity (%)
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30.4
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49.8
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46.9
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56.7
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.39
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.80
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Strong
operational numbers but masked by kitchen sinking
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There were plenty of costs spikes, indicative of kitchen
sinking exercise to ensure a ‘cleaner’ 2016 is at hand. This resulted
in 4Q15 and 2015 core net profits of MYR17m and MYR279m falling short
vs our MYR480m for 2015. We tweak our 2016-17 earnings forecasts by
-3.7% and -3.0% respectively on management’s latest inputs and we
introduce 2018 forecast. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher TP of
MYR1.80 (from MYR1.75), pegged to an unchanged 1x 2016 P/BV.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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5,415.7
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6,299.1
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6,088.7
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6,515.1
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EBITDAR
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1,769.1
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2,617.4
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2,591.7
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2,574.8
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Core net profit
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432.9
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278.7
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764.3
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796.2
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Core EPS (sen)
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15.6
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10.0
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27.5
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28.6
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(22.2)
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(35.7)
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174.2
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4.2
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Net DPS (sen)
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0.0
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0.0
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7.0
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7.0
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Core P/E (x)
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8.9
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13.9
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5.1
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4.9
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P/BV (x)
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0.8
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0.9
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0.8
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0.7
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Net dividend yield (%)
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0.0
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0.0
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5.0
|
5.0
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ROAE (%)
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9.1
|
6.2
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16.1
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15.0
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ROAA (%)
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2.3
|
1.3
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3.6
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3.7
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EV/EBITDAR (x)
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10.7
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5.3
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5.3
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5.1
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Net debt/equity (%)
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249.9
|
228.9
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196.2
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164.3
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Share
Price:
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MYR12.12
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Target
Price:
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MYR13.00
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Booster from
Singapore Ops
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The 4Q15 earnings outperformance was due to
better-than-expected sales and margins contribution from Singapore.
However, dividend was in line as a final DPS of 67sen brings FY15 DPS
to 72sen (DPR: 96%). Into FY16, we expect weaker domestic ops on
generally weaker consumer sentiment to be buffered by the Singapore
ops. Maintain HOLD, with a raised DCF-TP to MYR13.00 (from MYR12.20) on
rolling forward valuation.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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1,635.1
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1,659.9
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1,723.6
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1,781.8
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EBITDA
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293.6
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305.9
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324.3
|
336.9
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Core net profit
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211.6
|
228.3
|
236.8
|
245.7
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Core EPS (sen)
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69.2
|
74.7
|
77.5
|
80.4
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Core EPS growth (%)
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15.0
|
7.9
|
3.7
|
3.8
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Net DPS (sen)
|
69.3
|
72.0
|
75.0
|
78.0
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Core P/E (x)
|
17.5
|
16.2
|
15.6
|
15.1
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P/BV (x)
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11.9
|
11.0
|
10.5
|
10.1
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Net dividend yield (%)
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5.7
|
5.9
|
6.2
|
6.4
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ROAE (%)
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72.2
|
70.5
|
68.9
|
68.2
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ROAA (%)
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33.6
|
34.2
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34.2
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33.9
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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12.2
|
11.7
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11.4
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11.0
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.31
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Target
Price:
|
MYR1.36
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Below
expectations
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Excluding the one-off FV gain and distribution paid to
perpetual sukuk holders, MSGB’s FY15 core net profit of MYR338.8m was
5%/7% below our/consensus estimates. We lower our FY16/17 earnings
forecasts by 15% p.a.. However, our TP is raised to MYR1.36 (+13sen)
after factoring in the repurchase of MYR315m convertible bonds which
has lowered the dilution impact to our MYR2.35 RNAV/sh est. (+28sen).
Upgrade to HOLD.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
|
2,904.7
|
3,108.5
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2,938.1
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3,186.0
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EBITDA
|
492.9
|
527.9
|
574.6
|
624.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
339.2
|
338.8
|
317.4
|
350.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
18.4
|
14.1
|
13.2
|
14.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
13.8
|
(23.5)
|
(6.3)
|
10.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
5.3
|
5.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
7.1
|
9.3
|
9.9
|
9.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
4.0
|
4.4
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
16.1
|
12.5
|
9.8
|
10.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.9
|
5.7
|
4.6
|
4.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.9
|
6.9
|
6.0
|
5.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
35.8
|
4.3
|
8.4
|
8.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.58
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.30
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong job wins
prospect
|
|
Friday’s analyst briefing reiterated our upbeat view on
WCT on strong construction job win prospect and improved earnings
delivery in 2016. There is upside to our conservative 2016 job win
estimate. Our earnings forecasts are unchanged. Maintain BUY on WCT as
potential earnings recovery and corporate exercises would re-rate the
stock.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,662.2
|
1,667.9
|
2,250.2
|
2,400.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
147.5
|
145.7
|
242.0
|
256.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
112.3
|
129.3
|
134.8
|
146.5
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
10.3
|
11.3
|
11.2
|
12.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(44.9)
|
9.6
|
(0.4)
|
8.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.2
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
15.4
|
14.0
|
14.1
|
12.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.9
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
5.1
|
5.3
|
5.1
|
5.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
21.6
|
27.1
|
16.3
|
15.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
66.4
|
78.9
|
73.9
|
73.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.30
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.28
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Downstream
outperformed
|
|
FY15 results exceeded our expectation by 25% largely on
significant turnaround at its downstream division in 4Q15. For 2016, we
forecast 40% EPS growth on higher output (+10%) and CPO ASP (+6%). We
continue to like SOP for its long term growth prospects, sweetened by
its property development potential arising from its strategic landbank
in Miri. Reiterate BUY on a higher TP of MYR5.28 (+5sen).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,852.8
|
3,642.4
|
3,774.6
|
3,940.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
290.2
|
274.8
|
322.4
|
412.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
112.8
|
84.9
|
118.5
|
170.9
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
25.7
|
19.2
|
26.9
|
38.7
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
19.7
|
(25.0)
|
39.5
|
44.2
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.0
|
3.8
|
5.4
|
7.7
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
16.8
|
22.3
|
16.0
|
11.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
1.2
|
1.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.8
|
6.2
|
8.2
|
11.0
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.3
|
3.0
|
3.9
|
5.4
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.7
|
9.8
|
8.1
|
6.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
33.5
|
46.7
|
41.6
|
32.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.39
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.40
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great results,
but staying cautious for now
|
|
2015 earnings and dividends were above expectations due to
lower-than-expected taxes and cost at the print segment, and a slight
revenue outperformance. We are unsure if the cost savings in 4Q15 are
sustainable. We conservatively maintain our forward earnings and
dividends estimates pending an analyst briefing on 4 Mar 2016. Maintain
HOLD and SOP-based TP of MYR2.40 for now.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,013.7
|
1,019.0
|
995.3
|
1,037.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
242.3
|
206.2
|
205.7
|
212.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
151.5
|
131.9
|
126.3
|
134.5
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
20.5
|
17.9
|
17.1
|
18.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
4.8
|
(12.9)
|
(4.3)
|
6.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
16.0
|
17.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.6
|
13.4
|
14.0
|
13.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
6.7
|
7.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
13.1
|
11.5
|
11.0
|
11.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
9.0
|
7.8
|
7.5
|
8.4
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.7
|
6.9
|
7.0
|
6.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao
Yang
|
|
|
|
Jade Tam
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.32
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.48
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great end to
2015 with 7.6% dividend yield!
|
|
4Q15 and 2015 core net profit was within expectations.
That said, 2015 DPS positively surprised at 10sen, delivering 7.6%
yield. With the Summer Olympics and Euro Cup this year, we still expect
TV adex to grow 5% YoY in 2016. We maintain our FY16 and FY17 estimates,
but raise DPS estimates by 3sen p.a., thus offering attractive yields
of >8% p.a.. Maintain BUY call but trim our TP premised on unchanged
1x end-FY16 P/BV as our higher DPS estimates trim our BVPS estimates.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,507.0
|
1,427.7
|
1,464.8
|
1,526.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
310.8
|
325.8
|
313.5
|
324.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
141.6
|
138.7
|
143.0
|
156.4
|
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
12.6
|
12.5
|
12.8
|
14.0
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(34.2)
|
(0.9)
|
2.5
|
9.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
11.0
|
10.0
|
11.0
|
12.0
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
10.5
|
10.6
|
10.3
|
9.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
8.3
|
7.6
|
8.3
|
9.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.7
|
8.6
|
8.8
|
9.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.6
|
5.8
|
6.1
|
7.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.0
|
4.0
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao
Yang
|
|
|
|
Jade Tam
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.65
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.73
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Continues to
deliver
|
|
3QFY3/16 results were within expectations. Less newsprint
consumption and labour costs at the Malaysian segment greatly moderated
weak adex sentiment in Greater China and Canada. We keep our earnings
estimates, BUY call and MYR0.73 TP. Valuations remains very cheap at
<10x PER and <5x EV/EBITDA. Note that there is further upside to
its already attractive dividend yields of >6% p.a. as our DPS
estimates assume only 50% DPR.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,530.6
|
1,589.3
|
1,449.8
|
1,511.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
287.2
|
268.1
|
243.6
|
249.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
157.5
|
144.4
|
131.5
|
136.9
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
9.3
|
8.6
|
7.8
|
8.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(8.2)
|
(8.3)
|
(8.9)
|
4.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.7
|
3.4
|
3.9
|
4.1
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
6.9
|
7.5
|
8.3
|
7.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
7.2
|
5.3
|
6.0
|
6.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
23.3
|
19.4
|
16.0
|
14.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
10.5
|
9.4
|
8.1
|
8.4
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.0
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
3.9
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
21.9
|
5.9
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao
Yang
|
|
|
|
Jade Tam
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.23
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.23
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Making positive
progress, one step at a time
|
|
AirAsia X’s results were better than ours and consensus
expectations. 4Q15 returned to the black with a core net profit of
MYR92m, reducing accumulated core losses for FY15 to MYR144m versus our
MYR180m core net loss forecast. Yields surprised on the upside and load
factors were strong. We revise our 2016-17 earnings forecasts by +148%
and +18% respectively. Maintain HOLD with a slightly higher TP of
MYR0.23 (from MYR0.21), pegged to an unchanged 1x 2017 P/BV.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,939.1
|
3,062.6
|
3,958.2
|
4,644.7
|
|
EBITDAR
|
303.6
|
788.1
|
1,227.0
|
1,446.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
(394.8)
|
(144.1)
|
53.7
|
121.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
(16.7)
|
(4.2)
|
1.6
|
3.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
125.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
(1.4)
|
(5.4)
|
14.6
|
6.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.7
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
(36.6)
|
(20.2)
|
8.3
|
16.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
(10.1)
|
(3.8)
|
1.1
|
2.0
|
|
EV/EBITDAR (x)
|
8.8
|
2.2
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
180.8
|
179.7
|
308.0
|
358.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.19
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.05
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stay sideline
for now
|
|
Unutilised capacity at Perodua’s manufacturing plant would
cap MBM’s earnings in 1H16, but better utilisation is expected in 2H16
with the launch of the sedan model. Factoring in this, alongside lower
associates’ contribution, losses in OMI alloy wheel plant, and weaker
vehicle sales estimates, we cut FY16/17/18 earnings forecasts by
32%/21%/21%. HOLD with a lower TP of MYR2.05 (-31%), on unchanged 9x
FY16 PER.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,774.1
|
1,816.7
|
1,752.8
|
1,771.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
17.8
|
43.9
|
24.0
|
28.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
112.2
|
83.5
|
88.9
|
106.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
28.7
|
21.4
|
22.7
|
27.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(18.8)
|
(25.5)
|
6.4
|
19.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
8.0
|
10.0
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
7.6
|
10.2
|
9.6
|
8.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.7
|
4.6
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
7.6
|
5.4
|
5.5
|
6.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
4.1
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
91.1
|
32.0
|
50.7
|
40.8
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
13.1
|
10.1
|
2.7
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.29
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recess is over,
time to work
|
|
Following a strong 4Q15, management expects another busy
quarter backed by a solid order backlog. 3-month average book-to-bill
ratio also improved to 1.4x (12-month high). Solid orders at both the
MVS and ABI divisions came from a sizeable number of clients globally.
We see upside to our forecasts should order momentum sustains into
2Q16. For now, our forecasts and MYR3.80 TP (13.5x CY17 EPS) are
unchanged. Exciting times are ahead with stronger earnings visibility;
reiterate BUY.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
169.9
|
160.3
|
220.8
|
244.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
53.5
|
58.9
|
71.7
|
78.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
50.3
|
51.3
|
66.3
|
67.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
21.5
|
21.8
|
28.2
|
28.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
135.6
|
1.5
|
29.2
|
1.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.0
|
6.2
|
8.1
|
8.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
15.3
|
15.1
|
11.7
|
11.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
4.4
|
3.7
|
3.0
|
2.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
2.4
|
2.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
32.9
|
26.8
|
28.5
|
24.0
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
25.5
|
21.3
|
21.3
|
16.4
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.9
|
12.7
|
10.3
|
9.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.50
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.40
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scouting around
for M&As
|
|
Management is actively looking out for M&As in the
near term. A net cash position of MYR137m (as of Dec 2015) provides
such opportunity. On operations, FMCG continues to do the heavy lifting
while F&B could still be a slight drag in the near term. Maintain
HOLD but with a trimmed TP of MYR1.40 (-5sen) on unchanged 12.5x FY17
PER.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
382.2
|
397.7
|
393.0
|
424.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
86.3
|
82.9
|
81.9
|
87.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
48.9
|
48.8
|
46.2
|
50.6
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
10.8
|
10.8
|
10.2
|
11.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(31.9)
|
(0.3)
|
(5.3)
|
9.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
5.6
|
6.1
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
13.9
|
13.9
|
14.7
|
13.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
3.7
|
4.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.3
|
14.5
|
13.3
|
13.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
12.1
|
11.3
|
10.3
|
10.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.7
|
8.2
|
6.9
|
6.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.94
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.07
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q15 earnings in
line
|
|
4Q15 results were in line as rental income was mainly
supported by KOMTAR JBCC and 27 QSR Properties. KOMTAR JBCC would
remain as ALSREIT’s main earnings growth catalyst. Maintain BUY with an
unchanged DCF-based TP of MYR1.07 (WACC: 7.2%, terminal yield: 7%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE na (MYR m)
|
FYna
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
na
|
20.7
|
76.5
|
80.9
|
|
Net property income
|
na
|
15.7
|
55.0
|
58.7
|
|
Distributable income
|
na
|
7.1
|
33.9
|
37.6
|
|
DPU (sen)
|
na
|
1.1
|
5.3
|
5.5
|
|
DPU growth (%)
|
na
|
na
|
387.2
|
5.3
|
|
Price/DPU(x)
|
na
|
87.0
|
17.9
|
17.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
na
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
DPU yield (%)
|
na
|
1.1
|
5.6
|
5.9
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
5.8
|
6.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
na
|
na
|
3.6
|
4.0
|
|
Debt/Assets (x)
|
na
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.52
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.40
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q15 above
expectations
|
|
4Q15 results outperformed on higher-than-expected precast
margins. We raise our 2016 construction job win forecast given Kimlun’s
potential win of the Pan Borneo Sarawak Highway works. Our 2016/17 EPS
estimates are increased by 9/13% and our new TP is MYR1.40 (+16%) after
we roll forward valuation. HOLD; sizeable job win prospect is in the
price.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,206.4
|
1,053.6
|
980.8
|
961.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
90.7
|
114.5
|
79.5
|
88.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
33.8
|
64.4
|
39.6
|
42.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.3
|
21.4
|
13.2
|
14.0
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(5.3)
|
90.5
|
(38.5)
|
6.0
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
3.5
|
5.8
|
3.6
|
3.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
13.5
|
7.1
|
11.5
|
10.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.3
|
3.8
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.7
|
15.0
|
8.4
|
8.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.8
|
6.8
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.0
|
4.2
|
6.2
|
5.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
23.2
|
14.7
|
8.0
|
4.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Industrial Production (IP) shrank -0.5% YoY in Jan
2016 (Dec 2015: -11.9% YoY). Rebounds in Biomedical and Electronics
were offset by declines in others led by Transport & Precision
Engineering. PMI data and EDB survey point to weak 1H 2016 outlook
after last year’s -5.1% contraction. But the rebound in net
manufacturing investment commitments (2015: +22.7%; 2014: -15%)
raises the prospect of capacity expansions and higher output as the
year progresses despite the challenging global outlook.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The FBM KLCI fell 11.44 points WoW to close at
1,663.44, as global markets gyrated but some profit-taking activities
emerged in Malaysia. The weekly volume rose from 1.53b to 1.91b
shares.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
Global: G-20 wants governments doing more and Central
Banks less. Finance chiefs from the world’s top economies committed their
governments to doing more to boost global growth amid mounting concerns
over the potency of monetary policy. In a pledge that will prove easier
to write than deliver and may disappoint investors looking for a
coordinated stimulus plan, the Group of 20 said "we will use fiscal
policy flexibly to strengthen growth, job creation and confidence."
After a two- day meeting in Shanghai, finance ministers and central bank
governors also doubled down on a line from their last gathering that
"monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth."
(Source: Bloomberg)
China: Halts two outbound investment programs, FT reports.
Government halts allotment of quotas in Qualified Domestic Limited
Partner program, delays start of Qualified Domestic Institutional
Investor 2 program, FT says on website, citing unidentified people with
knowledge of situation. Move is bid to stem capital outflows and support
CNY. SAFE in prolonged talks with asset managers on how to salvage
licenses in fresh format, one person says. (Source: Bloomberg)
South Korea: March manufacturers’ confidence unchanged at
66, according to Bank of Korea statement. Proportion of companies
surveyed complaining about weak domestic demand fell to 24% from 25.2% in
last survey. Confidence index for non-manufacturers for March fell to 67
from 68. Results were based on survey conducted February 15-22, with
responses from 1,748 manufacturers and 1,121 non-manufacturers. (Source:
Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Bioalpha: Health awareness to give Bioalpha a boost.
Increasing costs of healthcare, paired with growing consciousness among
consumers of preventive healthcare, are turning people towards supplement
products which will benefit Bioalpha Holdings. The company is currently
in talks with several MNCs for ODM contracts and a product that is
accepted by two or three MNCs will easily translate into additional
revenue of MYR4m and MYR5m. Bioalpha also has plans to expand its
pharmacy network through M&A exercises and open new retail outlets
primarily located in the Klang Valley and Johor in a bid to double sales
of its in-house products. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily).
Scomi Engineering: Gains from Brazil turmoil. Its partner
for the Line 17 monorail project in Sao Paulo had pulled out from the
project according to a Brazilian financial newspaper and Scomi is
reported to assume the remaining works which is estimated to be worth
USD300m according to CEO Kanesan Veluppilai. It currently has an
orderbook of MYR1.32b excluding the additional Line 17 orders. (Source:
The Star)
JHM Consolidation: To invest MYR25m in expansion. The
company will be investing MYR25m in an expansion project later this year
to support an automotive lighting deal that will generate USD50m per
annum starting next year. JHM would supply signature lighting lamps for
the rear end of branded cards of a North American customer. (Source: The
Star)
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|
